A scenario of “What ifs” in Bihar

What If BJP’s Own Voters Create a Political Earthquake in Bihar?

But in politics particularly in Bihar “What if” is not a question. It’s a warning. A whisper before the storm. And with 100 days remaining for the 2025 Assembly election, one “What if” is keeping NDA on its toes: What if BJP’s own dedicated supporters the quiet, faithful ones choose to silently vote for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party instead? It sounds melodramatic, but in Bihar, undercurrents have changed the course of history in the past. This time, however, the shocks may reverberate deep within the NDA, possibly burying Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) under a paltry 25 seats, precisely the way PK has long predicted.

What If. JD(U) Fights Only 100–110 Seats?

Under the NDA formula, the JDU could be struggling for as low as 100 to 110 of Bihar’s 243 seats—a steep decline for a party that enjoyed a virtual majority. This transition is not only a numbers game; it also involves a psychological aspect. Nitish Kumar remains the face of NDA in Bihar; however, many BJP karyakartas, especially urban upper castes like Bhumihars, Rajputs, Kayasthas, and Vaishyas, view him as having lost his political sheen. For them, this is not a coalition but a compromise.

What if Jan Suraaj is the new option?

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is no longer a one-man show or an NGO. With more than 1,000 plus panchayats reached, volunteer-driven Badlav Sabhas picking up steam, and PK always on the ground, JSP is becoming a serious, youth-driven choice. And this is where the transformation takes root not in a cacophony, but in the silence. In a booth, a voter weighs: “We like Modi. But in Bihar, Nitish no longer excites. Let’s try something different.” A 5–7% swing in as many as 50–60 tight contests, most of them within BJP and JD(U) strongholds, can well change the equation.

What If. JD(U) is Hit the Hardest?

Here’s the actual surprise: This transition will affect JD(U) worse than BJP. JD(U) relies substantially on BJP’s vote transfer to win in split seats. If BJP’s core voter — even 10–15% in some pockets — does not cast a vote or votes for Jan Suraaj, JD(U)’s margins collapse. Let us not forget that JD(U) had won only 43 seats in 2020. That was in alliance with BJP. With third front cutting into their vote share and BJP having internal instability, JD(U) falling below 25 seats is no longer a fantasy — it’s a possibility. And then came Prashant Kishor’s once-mocked prediction “JD(U) will be within 25,” could suddenly sound prophetic.

What If. JSP Doesn’t Win Big, But Changes Everything?

Although Jan Suraaj may get only 10 to 15 seats, the consequences may be far more serious: In a closely contested election, it could benefit the RJD or opposition parties in dividing the votes. It could shatter the perception that Bihar is trapped in NDA vs RJD forever. It has the chance to be the AAP-like gamechanger Bihar never realized it required—not for 2025 alone but as a platform for 2030 as well. The true tale is that it is not winning the seats JSP wins but how many they cause others to lose. The actual question isn’t “Who is the candidate?”—it’s “Where is the trust?” Its critics generally inquire, “Where is JSP’s candidate?” But maybe that’s the wrong question. Bihar’s voters have seen candidates. Many. Over decades. What they yearn for now is trust—and increasingly, they find it in the Badlav Sabha, among the volunteers, and in the vision. They may not know names per seat. But they do realize what they want: change.

In conclusion, If BJP voters — even if unspoken — start defecting to Jan Suraaj in a few of their constituencies, the outcome on results day might shock all alliance mathematics. This election will not be about Nitish, Tejashwi, or Modi. It might also signify something more profound: the unobtrusive rebellion of a weary voter in search of new hope. In that silence, the storm lies.

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