Bihar’s Elections Are No Longer About Alliances They’re About Allegiances
The Bihar 2025 Assembly Elections won’t merely be a contest between alliances it will be a referendum on how deeply identity politics has evolved. At the heart of this transformation lies a new wave of polarisation, driven by the clash of caste aspirations, religious insecurities, and nationalistic sentiment. Bihar’s past formula of “caste arithmetic + alliance chemistry” is under siege. With 243 seats in play, at least 42 constituencies (17.2%) stand out as sensitive not just demographically but psychologically. These are where national events, such as a terrorist attack in Kashmir or communal tensions elsewhere, penetrate voting behavior deeply, especially among youth and marginalized communities.
1. The Axis of Change: From Caste Consolidation to Communal Mobilisation
Historically, Bihar’s elections were dominated by caste equations e.g. Yadav + Muslim (MY) under RJD, Upper castes + EBCs + Dalits under BJP-JDU alliances But in 2025, there’s a visible shift.
Religion vs Caste: The Rising Conflict Muslim voters (approx. 17% of Bihar’s population) once solely dedicated to RJD are now split between fear and frustration.
Caste groups like Kushwahas Nishads, Paswans and Kurmis traditionally loyal to local chieftains are questioning old loyalties in view of national security rhetoric and Hindutva-driven pride. This is leading to intra-OBC fractures and a potential caste class-religion reconfiguration . This unpredictable churn may not favor any one bloc outright but will reshape how parties approach 2026 Assembly preparations
2. The 42 Sensitive Constituencies: Microcosms of National Anxieties
These 42 seats span four types:
a) Seemanchal & Muslim-Dominated Seats : Kishanganj, Bahadurganj, Jokihat, Amour, Araria, Baisi Here, AIMIM is attempting to disrupt RJD’s hold security narratives (e.g., post-Pahalgam-type attacks) can trigger polarisation, impacting Congress and RJD alike.
b) Mixed Urban Seats with Religious Tension Potential : Gaya Town, Patna Sahib, Phulwari, Aurangabad, Mokama these assemblies are being closely watched due to urban communal undertones, especially among first-time voters exposed to nationalist digital media.
c) Caste-Volatile Semi-Urban Seats : Madhubani, Saharsa, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Samastipur Old caste loyalties are shifting the “backward unity” mantra is failing as local pride, employment, and law & order dominate
d) Borderline and Strategic Zones : Raxaul, Bettiah, Bagaha, Chanpatia these areas are security sensitive and infiltration prone, making them hotbeds for narrative control. One inflammatory incident could tilt entire blocs of undecided voters
3. Parties in Flux: Evolving Strategies Amid Identity Crisis
BJP: From Hindutva to Homeland Security
•Positioning national security not just as a talking point but a local concern.
•Trying to transcend caste lines by creating a “Hindu victimhood” umbrella, especially in sensitive districts.
•Focused on urban youth and middle castes like Kurmis and Kushwahas
RJD: Stuck Between Legacy and Leadership
•Struggling to balance Tejashwi’s development pitch with Lalu-era identity politics.
•Losing grip over non-Yadav OBCs and Muslims to newer challengers.
•Needs to redefine its Muslim outreach post-AIMIM’s rise.
AIMIM: From Margins to Mainstream in Seemanchal
•Projecting itself as the only party bold enough to protect Muslim identity
•Targeting 12-15 seats in Northeast Bihar.
•May not win all, but enough to cut RJD and Congress margins, altering seat outcomes.
JD(U): The Fading Mediator
. Nitish’s centrist brand is eroding under pressure.
. Still retains influence over Kurmis, EBCs, but faces existential questions: with whom and why?
. Likely to play kingmaker, not king.
Congress: Ghost of Secularism Past
•Still stuck in urban intellectualism, lacks rural machinery.
•Could be relevant in swing seats with high minority presence, but mostly dependent on allies.
Other Local Players
•HAM (Manjhi): Targeting Mahadalits and Gaya belt
•VIP (Sahani): Making a play for Nishad seats around Muzaffarpur
•CPI(ML): Strong in Bhojpur–Arrah belt; appealing to landless Dalits and backward youth
4.The Big Picture: A Political Landscape on the Brink of Realignment
No party is immune from the winds of change. The question isn’t who will win, the question is how Bihar will be changed after this election:
Religion vs Caste: For the first time, both identities are pulling in opposite directions. Muslims face pressure to consolidate, while caste groups are splintering
Nationalism vs Nativism: Will voters choose security over employment? Will caste pride give way to Hindu consolidation?
Old Alliances vs New Equations: Every party has to revise its math. No one can rely on legacy formulas.
Conclusion: As Bihar hurtles toward 2026, the electoral landscape is no longer a straightforward battlefield of caste based alliances or secular vs communal binaries. It is becoming an emotional and psychological contest where the identity of the voter is not just their surname or religion, but how they perceive security, pride, injustice, and representation in a rapidly polarised India.
Bihar is rewriting its own political grammar where communalism challenges caste, youth reject legacy slogans, and security fears can override centuries old social loyalties. In this volatile terrain, even a single narrative spark whether from a riot, an attack, or a social media movement could alter voter sentiments overnight. This is no longer just an election it’s a referendum on the future of Indian democracy’s most complex laboratory of identity.
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Mayur Gavture is a Political Strategy Consultant and currently working as the legislative & Political Associate at the Office of Hon. Member of Parliament Shri Namdev Kirsan. He also has interests in Election Campaign , Legislative Policy – Advocacy & Governance Advisor.